These monthly market commentaries share a synopsis of the U.S. financial markets with intelligent insights.
March 2026 Market Recap
After the initial uncertainty following oil supply disruptions, equity markets have often recovered quickly. Over the past two decades, energy markets have generally bounced back from geopolitical shocks, since these events haven't led to prolonged physical supply outages.
Thus, big moves in commodities and equity prices rarely last. Part of the reason is that the United States, the world's leading consumer of oil and gas, is now also its largest producer. No two events are the same, and the war with Iran feels especially close to home given direct U.S. involvement. As globalization continues to evolve, markets may increasingly face sudden disruptions.
Here are observations on what occurred across the investment markets in March:
Broad Market Performance1
| Index | March | Q1 | 1 Year | 3 Year |
| S&P 500 | -5.0 | -4.3 | 17.8 | 18.3 |
| MSCI EAFE | -10.3 | -1.2 | 21.3 | 13.6 |
| Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond | -1.8 | -0.1 | 4.4 | 3.6 |
Data as of March 31, 2026
Domestic Equity2
International and Global Equities3
Fixed Income Markets4
Specialty Markets5
Sectors6
Market Volatility
Oil shocks are common sources of market volatility, as they can stoke inflation and slow growth. Historically, markets have rebounded quickly. See chart below:
Dear Valued Investor,
As the Iran conflict enters its second month, geopolitical stress continues to test investors. Historical stock market performance during geopolitical conflicts helps remind us that stocks are far more resilient than the moment may suggest. As we assess today’s environment and the uncertainties surrounding ongoing military operations in Iran, we focus on two past conflicts we believe are instructive, though past performance does not guarantee future results.
The two periods offer contrasts. In 1990, at the start of the first Gulf War, the U.S. economy was slipping into recession. Corporate profits were flattening, inflation remained elevated, and consumer confidence was fragile. With little fundamental support in place, markets initially struggled. Yet even then, equities began recovering well before the conflict formally ended, anticipating eventual stabilization.
By contrast, in 2003, when the Iraq War began, the economy had already healed from the dotcom bust and the 2001–2002 corporate accounting scandals. Corporate earnings were rebounding, monetary policy was supportive, and valuations were reasonable. With stronger fundamentals in place, markets responded positively after hostilities started and began a five-year bull market that didn’t peak until October 2007.
Today, we see elements of both periods, but importantly, we do not see evidence that the long‑term economic or earnings outlook has been meaningfully impaired. First and foremost, a demilitarized Iranian regime would ultimately contribute to a safer world and more stable markets, mitigating a key geopolitical risk that has persisted for nearly five decades. From a market perspective, nothing about the current conflict undermines our confidence in the long‑term attractiveness of equities. For stocks, the more positive 2003 path seems more likely than 1990.
Beyond the human element, we can all acknowledge that this environment is uncomfortable. The damage the Iranian regime has inflicted on energy and other infrastructure in the region is unsettling. Iran maintains control of the Strait of Hormuz. There is no easy off-ramp. Yet history shows that markets often recover well before geopolitical tensions are fully resolved, frequently with surprising force once clarity begins to emerge. As stocks hinted at with strong gains on the last day of March, that outcome remains possible in our view.
While no one can predict how long this period of volatility will last, the underlying economic foundation and corporate America’s earnings power remain strong. Attractive opportunities are likely to emerge from this downdraft once U.S. military objectives are achieved and tankers can move freely through the strait.
We believe it's important to keep portfolio risk at or near long-term targets and remain well diversified. For long-term focused investors, we see opportunities to take advantage of weakness.
Warmest regards,
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Disclosures and references:
Investment Advisory Services offered through Global Retirement Partners, LLC DBA Connor & Gallagher OneSource, an SEC registered investment advisor.
1-6 All data referenced in the table and comments supplied by Morningstar.
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