These monthly market commentaries share a synopsis of the U.S. financial markets with intelligent insights.
Latest Commentary:
August 2025 Market Recap
Here are observations on what occurred across the public markets in August:
Broad Market Performance1
| Index | Aug | 3M | YTD | 1 Year |
| S&P 500 | 2.0 | 9.6 | 10.8 | 15.9 |
| MSCI EAFE | 4.3 | 5.1 | 22.8 | 13.9 |
| Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond | 1.2 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 3.1 |
Data as of August 31, 2025
Domestic Equity2
International and Global Equities3
Fixed Income Markets4
Specialty Markets5
Sectors6
Dear Valued Investor,
As summer winds down, the financial world remains focused primarily on the Federal Reserve (Fed). At last month’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled the Fed seems ready to cut interest rates later this month amid a slowing labor market and inflation risks poised to recede. Markets responded to the Fed’s message with a small cap-led rally and lower Treasury yields. The 10-year Treasury yield stands a good chance of staying in its current range, despite intensifying political pressure on the central bank. Containing long-term interest rates is critical as interest costs for the federal government continue to rise.
The latest inflation data for July matched expectations, but the slight increase in the year-over-year core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) deflator — the Fed’s preferred inflation metric — from 2.8% in June to 2.9% in July reminded us that there is still work to be done on inflation. Tariffs won’t make that work any easier as they flow through with a lag, their legality notwithstanding.
At the same time, the Fed and markets agree that recession risks remain low and that corporate America is in excellent health. Second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was revised higher to 3.3% annualized, a solid jumping off point for the second half. Fiscal policy stimulus coming in 2026 will likely offset tariff hits to the economy, creating a favorable backdrop. As markets are forward-looking, this setup can help stocks hold recent gains and mitigate potential market declines in case volatility picks up.
Meanwhile, corporate earnings continue to impress. The “Magnificent Seven” tech giants delivered nearly 30% earnings growth in the second quarter and increased capital investment plans. Capital investment in artificial intelligence (AI) could approach $500 billion next year, and potentially hit $3 to $4 trillion by 2030, according to NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang. This investment bolsters the earnings growth outlook for the tech sector and, more broadly, could bring sizable productivity gains to corporate America. Growth stocks should continue to do well.
Risks may be manageable, but we feel obligated to point out that September has historically been the worst month for the stock market. While this month could live up to its reputation as a soft patch for stocks (the average S&P 500 September price change is -0.7% since 1950), history tells us that when the broader market is trending higher into the month, seasonal weakness is less of a factor. There is also some risk that markets don’t like the forthcoming effects of tariffs, especially with stock valuations elevated.
As we navigate these crosscurrents, we encourage investors to remain diversified and consider adding equities on potential dips. Monetary and trade policy shifts, political dynamics, and corporate earnings strength present both opportunities and risks. We remain committed to guiding you through these complexities with as much clarity and confidence as possible.
Thank you for your trust along your financial journey.
Sincerely,
1-6 All data referenced in the table and comments supplied by Morningstar.
Disclaimer:This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Global Retirement Partners, LLC or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision, and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for informational purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.
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Disclaimer:
This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. Connor & Gallagher OneSource doesn’t provide research on individual equities. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however Connor & Gallagher OneSource makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.
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