<img alt="" src="https://secure.imaginativeenterprising-intelligent.com/794699.png" style="display:none;">
Financial Market Commentary

Monthly Market Commentary

<< Back to Financial Planning Page

These monthly market commentaries share a synopsis of the U.S. financial markets with intelligent insights.

Latest Commentary:

June 2025 Market Recap

July 2, 2025

Dear Valued Investor,

As Americans celebrated the July 4th holiday, the stock market and the weather across much of the country have both been on heaters. Stocks and bonds continue to effectively navigate a complex policy landscape shaped by evolving trade dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal stimulus. The market’s resilience in the face of these crosscurrents has been impressive, proving yet again that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy and corporate America can withstand a lot. 

In a volatile first half, the S&P 500 completed an impressive recovery from the April lows to end June at a fresh record high. The round trip from the February 19 high to the April 8 low and back, in slightly over four months, was one of the fastest recoveries on record from a 10–20% correction. Importantly, history tells us stocks tend to go higher after recovering correction losses, with average gains of 9.6% and 16.2% in the subsequent six and 12 months.   

Several factors helped fuel this rally: 

  • Israel-Iran cease-fire and resulting lower oil prices and lower interest rates
  • Progress on trade deals and, so far, little evidence of tariff-driven inflation
  • Stimulus from the pending tax cuts and spending bill 
  • Firming expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts and related weakness in the U.S. dollar
  • Resurgence in demand for artificial intelligence (AI) investments 
  • Buying by under-invested institutions trying to keep up with the rally 

Also, don’t forget the Cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, and Web 3.0 companies are adding to the economy and portfolios as well.   

While history suggests achieving new highs may bode well for the rest of the year, we know stocks don’t go up in a straight line. Several obstacles lie ahead. Perhaps the biggest one is the yet-to-be-felt effects of tariffs on companies’ profit margins. With stock valuations elevated (as they’ve been for a while), earnings will be key to further upside. Potentially higher interest rates from additional deficit spending are another risk to monitor. And as always, geopolitics are a wild card. 

We continue to monitor the macroeconomic backdrop, corporate fundamentals, policy developments, and technical indicators to guide our outlook. We believe the foundation for continued economic growth is intact, supported by resilient consumer spending, a healthy job market, modest earnings growth despite tariffs, the likely resumption of Fed rate cuts this fall, and the stimulus from the pending reconciliation bill. Staying invested and well-diversified while looking for opportunities to potentially add equities on weakness remains the prudent approach for this market environment. 

Thank you for your trust along your financial journey.  Please reach out to our team with questions.  

Sincerely,

 scott headshot
 
Scott Krase
Wealth Manager
SKrase@CGOFinancial.com
630.810.9100
CGO_logo_final_RGB_16

 
 

Investment Advisory Services offered through Global Retirement Partners, LLC DBA Connor & Gallagher OneSource, an SEC registered investment advisor.

Previous Commentary:


 
Disclaimer:

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. Connor & Gallagher OneSource doesn’t provide research on individual equities. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, Connor & Gallagher OneSource makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.
 
*Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA & SIPC.  Investment advisory services offered through Global Retirement Partners, LLC DBA Connor & Gallagher OneSource, an SEC registered investment advisor.  Connor & Gallagher OneSource and Connor & Gallagher Benefit Services are separate entities from LPL Financial.

Contact Scott With Any Questions or if You Would Like a Review of Your Portfolio

 

Wealth Management Services

  • Investment Management
  • Retirement Planning
  • Tax Planning Strategies
  • Risk Management
  • Trust & Estate Strategies
  • Long Term Care Planning

Questions? 

Email us at info@GoCGO.com