Monthly Market Commentary

These monthly market commentaries share a synopsis of the U.S. financial markets with intelligent insights.

October 2025 Market Recap

Here are observations on what occurred across the investment markets in October:

Broad Market Performance¹

Data as of October 31, 2025

Domestic Equity²

• US equity markets continued their months long rally in October, led again by bigger cap growth stocks in the Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors.
  
• Small cap stocks did not maintain their torrid Q3 pace, delivering mixed results in the month and mid cap stocks were slightly negative.  

International and Global Equities³

• Non-US developed market stocks were up 1% in October, with Japan outpacing the US and Germany a notable laggard in Europe.
  
• Korea was up 23% and Taiwan was up 10% in the month, driven by higher growth expectations linked to the AI theme. China fell back 4%.
  

Fixed Income Markets⁴

• US bond market returns were modestly positive in the month as investors looked ahead to whether the Fed would continue to cut interest rates again in December. The lack of government data has clouded the discussion. 

Specialty Markets⁵

• REITs sold off at the end of the month due to a small rise in longer term interest rates. Commodities were lifted by rising natural gas, gold, and copper prices.

Sectors⁶

• Growth sectors (IT, Consumer Discretionary, and Comm Services) were boosted by positive earnings reports. Financials and Materials were two of the weaker sectors in the month.

November 5, 2025

Dear Valued Investor,

The last week of October delivered a flurry of impactful headlines across earnings, monetary policy, and geopolitics — each shaping the investment landscape as we head into year-end. Here are some key takeaways:

Corporate America continues to impress. We’re now more than 70% through third quarter earnings season and an impressive 83% of S&P 500 companies have exceeded earnings expectations, putting index companies collectively on track to deliver a fourth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. The surge in capital expenditures from Big Tech has been a standout theme. The top seven technology companies are now expected to invest more than $500 billion next year to build out AI infrastructure, underscoring the intensity of the AI arms race. While investors have generally welcomed this investment, the cool reception to Meta’s (META) results highlights growing scrutiny.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) introduced uncertainty about the future path of rates. Fed Chair Powell emphasized that a December rate cut was “far from a foregone conclusion.” As anticipated, the Fed cut interest rates by 0.25% at its October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. However, the Committee remains divided, and the tone was less dovish than markets hoped, sending Treasury yields higher. Labor market commentary was also revealing, painting a picture of a “no hire, no fire” dynamic as companies mostly held headcounts steady amid economic uncertainty. From our perspective, labor market risks make the case for continued rate cuts into 2026 despite lingering upside risks to inflation.

U.S.-China trade truce reduced the risk of escalation. President Trump and President Xi reached a one-year trade truce at the APEC summit in South Korea last week. Key elements include reduced U.S. tariffs, resumed China soybean purchases, and a pause on China’s rare-earth export controls. The effective overall tariff burden is around 12%, well below most policy strategists’ expectations in the mid-teens. Easing trade tensions and reduced tariffs have provided a tailwind for corporate earnings.

These significant developments were generally well received by financial markets — enough to clinch the sixth straight positive month for the S&P 500 Index and the seventh straight for the Nasdaq Composite. While past performance does not guarantee future results, November through April has historically been the best six-month period of the year for stocks, although some gains may have been pulled forward and concentrated market leadership introduces some fragility to a bull market that hasn’t experienced a 5% pullback in nearly six months.

In closing, surprising earnings upside, easing trade tensions, and a favorable seasonal setup are balanced against supportive but less predictable monetary policy. We favor a selective tactical approach into year-end.

Thank you for your trust along your financial journey.

Sincerely,

 

 

Scott Krase

Wealth Manager
skrase@GoCGO.com
630.810.9100

1-6 All data referenced in the table and comments supplied by Morningstar.

Disclaimer:

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Global Retirement Partners, LLC or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision, and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for informational purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of November 1, 2025.

All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

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Investment Advisory Services offered through Global Retirement Partners, LLC DBA Connor & Gallagher OneSource, an SEC registered investment advisor.

 

Disclaimer:

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. Connor & Gallagher OneSource doesn’t provide research on individual equities. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, Connor & Gallagher OneSource makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

 

*Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA & SIPC.  Investment advisory services offered through Global Retirement Partners, LLC DBA Connor & Gallagher OneSource, an SEC registered investment advisor.  Connor & Gallagher OneSource and Connor & Gallagher Benefit Services are separate entities from LPL Financial.