Monthly Market Commentary

These monthly market commentaries share a synopsis of the U.S. financial markets with intelligent insights.

September 2025 Market Recap

Below are observations on what occurred across the public markets in September along with an excellent chart to review.

Broad Market Performance¹

Data as of September 30, 2025

Domestic Equity²

• US equity markets were positive in September, with broad participation though mega cap stocks led the rally for the month and the quarter.
• Building on strong returns in August, small cap stocks performed well in September. Multiple sectors in the Russell 2000 were up 16+% in the quarter, with Industrials benefitting from a rotation towards domestic economic growth.  

International and Global Equities³

• Non-US developed market stocks were positive in September but lagged the strong US equity markets. YTD, MSCI EAFE is well ahead of the S&P500 due to its strong start to 2025.
• China, Taiwan, and Korea were the big performers in the emerging markets index, which outperformed the US for the month, quarter, and YTD.
  

Fixed Income Markets⁴

• US bond markets took the Fed rate cut in stride, having priced in the move well in advance. Interest rates fell 5-10 bps over the quarter while bond spreads narrowed slightly, resulting in positive returns across most sectors for the month and quarter.   

Specialty Markets⁵

• REITs lagged bonds and broader equity markets as investors favored higher growth segments and corporate bonds for yield. Commodities were mixed with oil and gas prices down but gold and other precious metals rallying through the quarter.

Sectors⁶

• Growth sectors (IT and Comm Services) rallied on aggressive AI spending, pushing broad indices to new highs. Consumer Staples and Materials were the two negative sectors for the month.

Digital Assets

• Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to perform better than equities.  BTC was up approximately 5.63% and ETH up close to 1.59%.  The Bitcoin Mining ETF (MNRS) which focuses on the companies that mine, stake, or use Digital Assets as a Treasury strategy was up close to 35%.

October 1, 2025

Dear Valued Investor,

The October 1 deadline has passed, and the U.S. government has shut down. While political gridlock is never ideal, history suggests that shutdowns tend to be short-lived and have minimal sustained impact on the economy or the stock market. They are largely about political posturing and therefore don’t take long to get resolved. Simply put, delaying Social Security checks is not a winning political strategy, so it almost certainly won’t happen (we can’t make guarantees, but this is close).

Republicans do need votes from Democrats, and we know there hasn’t been much nice playing in the sandbox in Washington, D.C. lately, introducing the possibility of an extended shutdown. Democrats are seeking healthcare concessions, including reversing Medicaid cuts and extending Affordable Care Act subsidies. Meanwhile, the Republicans are threatening more public-sector layoffs in areas not aligned with the President’s priorities, as each side stakes out its position.

Investors have smartly looked past budget disruptions throughout history, rightly focusing on traditional fundamental drivers of the economy and stock market such as corporate earnings, consumer spending, business investment, inflation, and interest rates. That said, sectors heavily reliant on government contracts — such as defense and life sciences — may experience some short-term volatility. An extended shutdown, which could delay key economic data releases, including the October 3 jobs report, could detract slightly from economic growth but is unlikely to be material, in our view. See chart:

Government Shutdowns Over the Past 45 Years:

View Chart

Since 1976, the U.S. has experienced 20 shutdowns, averaging just eight days in duration. The longest, in 2018–2019, lasted 34 days. Importantly, the S&P 500 has historically posted average gains of 1.2% and 2.9% in the one- and three-month periods following budget resolutions, underscoring the market’s resilience, though past performance does not guarantee future results. Even if investors ignore the government shutdown, a pause may be in order given how far stocks have come since April — even as more tariffs are absorbed.

While we see rising odds of a 5–10% pullback, risk to this bull market appears low thanks to a resilient economy, strong earnings, the resumption of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle, and long-term catalysts like AI-driven productivity gains and fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). Against that backdrop, a pullback could offer an attractive buying opportunity.

In short, while near-term volatility is possible, or perhaps even likely, the broader outlook remains constructive. We encourage investors to emphasize stock market fundamentals over political theater and consider pullbacks as potential buying opportunities.

Thank you for your trust along your financial journey.

Sincerely,

 

 

Scott Krase

Wealth Manager
SKrase@CGOFinancial.com
630.810.9100

1-6 All data referenced in the table and comments supplied by Morningstar.

Disclaimer:

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Global Retirement Partners, LLC or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision, and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for informational purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of October 1, 2025.

All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

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Investor Blog: https://www.commonfinancialsense.com/

Investment Advisory Services offered through Global Retirement Partners, LLC DBA Connor & Gallagher OneSource, an SEC registered investment advisor.

 

Disclaimer:

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. Connor & Gallagher OneSource doesn’t provide research on individual equities. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, Connor & Gallagher OneSource makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

 

*Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA & SIPC.  Investment advisory services offered through Global Retirement Partners, LLC DBA Connor & Gallagher OneSource, an SEC registered investment advisor.  Connor & Gallagher OneSource and Connor & Gallagher Benefit Services are separate entities from LPL Financial.